The Paradox Portal
Economic/Social

Ellsberg Paradox

People prefer known probabilities over unknown ones

Overview

A decision theory paradox showing people avoid ambiguity even when it contradicts expected utility.

Urn with 30 red balls and 60 black or yellow balls (unknown mix). Most prefer betting on red over black (known vs unknown probability). Then most prefer betting on 'black or yellow' over 'red or yellow.' But these preferences are inconsistent with expected utility.

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