Psychological/Decision
Sleeping Beauty Problem
What credence should you give to a coin flip when awakened?
Overview
A probability puzzle about self-locating belief and the interpretation of probability.
Sleeping Beauty is put to sleep Sunday. A fair coin is flipped. If heads, she's awakened Monday only. If tails, she's awakened Monday and Tuesday (with Monday's memory erased). When awakened, what probability should she assign to heads? 1/2 (halfers) or 1/3 (thirders)?